A study entitled “Carbon choices determine U.S. cities committed to futures below sea level” indicates that estimates that sea level will rise three feet in the next 75 years may be too low. Maui News is reporting that sea-level rise “could swallow up the homes of nearly 10,000 current Kihei residents” in the next 200 years.
The study indicates that the timeline for this happening, absent controls on triggers for climate change, is much sooner.
As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the window to limit global warming below 2 °C appears to be closing. Associated projections for sea-level rise generally range near or below 1 m by 2100. However, paleontological and modeling evidence indicates long-term sea-level sensitivity to warming that is roughly an order of magnitude higher. Here we develop relationships between cumulative carbon emissions and longterm sea-level commitment and explore implications for the future of coastal developments in the United States. The results offer a new way to compare different emissions scenarios or policies and suggest that the long-term viability of hundreds of coastal municipalities and land currently inhabited by tens of millions of persons hang in the balance.